Section
Geopolitics
Power politics, diplomacy, sanctions, conflicts and international relations.
38 published articles
Featured
Turkey–Libya: Ankara Reshapes the Mediterranean Balance
On October 20, 2026, a parliamentary vote in eastern Libya altered the diplomatic balance of the Eastern Mediterranean.
AnalysisRecent publications
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GeopoliticsUnited States–Russia: The Suspension of Sanctions Reshapes the Balance of Power
By suspending the implementation of new sanctions against Russia just hours before they were due to take effect, Donald Trump has placed American energy priorities at the center of Washington’s policy toward Moscow.
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GeopoliticsEurope: The End of the American Security Guarantee
For nearly eight decades, European security has rested on a fundamental assumption: regardless of political disagreements between Washington and its allies, the United States would remain the ultimate guarantor of the continent’s strategic stability.
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GeopoliticsRussia–Europe: Property Rights in an Age of Confrontation
By placing additional European industrial assets under Russian administration, Moscow is accelerating a profound transformation of its economic relationship with the West.
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GeopoliticsMorocco–Spain: What Each Can Gain, What Neither Will Concede
In Ceuta, Felipe VI reaffirmed the territorial boundaries of Spain’s partnership with Rabat.
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GeopoliticsRussia: Diesel Cracks the Sanctions Regime
Russian refining infrastructure lies at the center of a new trade-off between American energy security and economic sanctions against Moscow.
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GeopoliticsRussia: Influence Without Allegiance
Russia can lose markets, see its arms exports decline and still retain considerable power to shape world affairs. It can face opposition within a society while becoming indispensable to its leaders. It can inspire a government’s distrust while continuing to maintain its military equipment, supply its energy or participate in negotiations on which its security depends. This coexistence of vulnerability and influence is one of the defining characteristics of Russian power.
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GeopoliticsMorocco–Europe: The Border Becomes a Bargaining Instrument
Following the migration crisis in Ceuta, Rabat is preparing a new cooperation proposal with the European Union.
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GeopoliticsEthiopia–Eritrea: The War Behind the Border
On October 9, 2026, Ethiopia brought an accusation before the United Nations Security Council whose consequences could extend far beyond the borders of the Horn of Africa.
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GeopoliticsEurope–China: Trade Under Scrutiny
On October 7, 2026, the German government decided that an apparently ordinary commercial transaction could no longer be assessed solely through market criteria. Berlin blocked Chinese state-owned shipping group COSCO from acquiring an 80% stake in Konrad Zippel, a company specializing in container transportation between ports and their hinterlands.
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GeopoliticsSahara: Time Is Beginning to Work in Rabat’s Favor
In Laayoune, the conflict does not look like a territory suspended for half a century. The city is expanding, roads run south toward Dakhla and Mauritania, ports are being developed, public investment has transformed infrastructure, and Moroccan institutions operate much as they do elsewhere in the Kingdom.
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GeopoliticsSaudi Arabia: Taking Back the Land to Reopen the Sea
For years, the Red Sea was treated as a maritime problem. Frigates escorted merchant vessels, destroyers intercepted drones, missiles were shot down above shipping lanes, and international coalitions tried to keep one of the world’s main commercial arteries open. Yet in early October 2026, the response taking shape in Riyadh is no longer merely naval.
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GeopoliticsKaliningrad: The Geography That Shortens the Escalation Ladder
On a map of Europe, Kaliningrad looks like an anomaly left behind by history. A Russian territory separated from Russia, wedged between Poland and Lithuania, facing a Baltic Sea whose shores now belong almost entirely to NATO members. Barely 15,000 square kilometres, less than 200 kilometres from east to west, yet one of the places where Europe’s military fault lines converge most densely.